High Oil Prices Could Cost Republicans Congress in 2026

Trump's First 18 Months in Office
The Apprentice Returns: Will Voters Say "You're Fired"?

Trump delivered on several major campaign promises during his first 18 months in office through executive actions and significant legislative achievements. A key accomplishment was the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, which permanently extended important elements of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act while introducing tax exemptions for tips and overtime pay. His administration also focused on deregulation, reducing federal bureaucracy, streamlining environmental reviews, and accelerating approvals for infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects.

Immigration remained a central priority, with the administration ending the CBP One application, increasing military support at the southern border, expanding deportation efforts, and strengthening enforcement measures. Trump also intensified efforts to combat fentanyl trafficking by enhancing law enforcement actions and designating several international cartels as terrorist organisations. In technology and industry, the administration advanced initiatives to strengthen U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence, support digital assets through a more favourable regulatory framework, and boost domestic semiconductor production and supply-chain resilience. Energy policy focused on expanding domestic oil and gas production while encouraging investment in manufacturing and reshoring.¹

Despite these achievements, some of Trump’s most ambitious pledges remain unfulfilled. His promises to reduce inflation, lower grocery and energy costs have fallen short of expectations. Meanwhile, efforts to quickly end the war in Ukraine as promised on the campaign trail failed. In addition, tariffs introduced by the administration have negatively affected some American manufacturers rather than providing the intended benefits.

Although Trump's policy successes may contribute to his legacy, voters are often driven by their personal economic reality. As the 2026 midterm elections approach, factors such as fuel prices, grocery bills, and the overall cost of living could carry more weight than legislative achievements in determining public sentiment.

From Drill Baby Drill to $120 Oil

President Trump entered office promising to cut energy bills in half and revive U.S. energy dominance through his "drill baby drill" agenda. While the administration sought to boost domestic production through deregulation and faster permitting, U.S. oil producers were slower to increase output than expected. Many companies prioritised shareholder returns over aggressive expansion, limiting the impact of Trump's energy policies on supply.

However, those ambitions were undermined by geopolitical events, particularly the war with Iran.

The Iran War Came at the Worst Possible Time

When the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, markets reacted immediately. Within days, crude oil prices surged roughly 65%.

The war rattled global energy markets, as attacks on oil infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran removed a major share of global supply from the market, triggering a severe oil shock.

The International Energy Agency characterized the disruption as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."² As a result, oil prices surged from around $60 per barrel at the start of 2026 to more than $120 by March, placing significant upward pressure on gasoline and household energy costs.

For an American public already anxious about the cost of living, the timing could not have been worse. For Republicans defending narrow congressional majorities, high oil prices create new political challenge.

The Midterm Price Tag of Operation Epic Fury

Although U.S. oil production increased, the sharp rise in global crude prices more than offset those gains, leaving American consumers exposed to persistently high fuel costs.

The cascading effect at the pump was quick. The national average for a gallon of gasoline rose from roughly $3 before "Operation Epic Fury" to $4.56, while in Washington and a few Western states prices rose to around $6.00. Such a spike in energy prices could become a key issue for voters heading into the November midterm elections, testing one of Trump's central economic promises.³

This highlights the challenges of achieving energy independence while pursuing an aggressive foreign policy agenda.

The Political Cost of Expensive Oil

Few economic indicators are as politically powerful as gasoline prices. Most Americans do not follow oil inventories, refinery margins or global shipping routes. They do, however, notice what it costs to fill their cars each week. That is what makes fuel prices such a potent political issue.

Whether the causes are domestic or international, voters often associate rising fuel costs with the government in power. Polling conducted after the outbreak of the Iran conflict showed growing public opposition to deeper military involvement, while approval ratings for the administration's handling of the economy weakened.

Democrats had already planned to make the 2026 midterm elections a referendum on the cost of living, and the war in Iran has provided a new line of attack. House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar articulated the emerging Democratic argument: "He's sending billions of our tax dollars to the Middle East for another war while he's kicking people off of healthcare and eliminating nutrition programs." ⁴

The party moved to tie energy prices not just to the war, but to a broader pattern of economic mismanagement such as tariffs, healthcare cuts, and now a Middle East conflict that is draining household budgets at the pump.

The economic impact extends beyond the petrol pump. Higher energy prices increase transportation costs, raise production expenses and place additional pressure on food prices. Farmers, manufacturers and small businesses are often among the first to feel the effects.

For farmers, one of Trump's most loyal supporters, the challenge is particularly acute. Many have already faced weaker export demand as a result of tariffs, while rising diesel prices have further squeezed margins. As a result, a key political support base could find itself under increasing economic pressure at a critical moment ahead of the 2026 elections.

Inflation Strikes Back

The macroeconomic picture underlying the political turmoil is sobering. A three-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed annual PCE inflation from 2.8% in February to 3.8% by April, reversing some of the progress made in bringing prices under control. After years of elevated inflation, many voters have little appetite for another surge in living costs.

The increase is significant given growing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Any renewed rise in inflation, especially in highly visible categories such as gasoline, carries considerable political consequences. The Fed, already in a delicate position, finds itself constrained by an energy-driven shock stemming from geopolitical events that monetary policy has no tools to address.

The challenge is particularly difficult because higher oil prices can slow economic growth while simultaneously increasing costs. This situation is known as stagflation and is one of the most politically damaging economic environments any government can face. The current situation is drawing uncomfortable parallels to the 1970s energy crisis, which was one of the most politically damaging economic eras in American history.

A Peace Deal Could Be a Political Lifeline

Not everything has moved against Republicans. If the U.S. and Iran reach a peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices would likely ease, although they may not return to pre-conflict levels.

For now, however, the situation remains fragile. Iranian crude exports in May remained below 0.3 million barrels per day, down sharply from April's average of 1.5 million barrels per day, with little sign of a recovery in tanker traffic through the Strait.

The political challenge is not simply whether oil prices fall, but whether they fall quickly enough to provide relief before voters head to the polls. Historically, voters have tended to hold incumbents accountable for the economic pain they feel in their daily lives, regardless of whether the causes originate at home or abroad. If fuel prices remain elevated and continue to feed into broader inflation, Republicans could find themselves fighting an uphill battle in November.

The Battle for Congress

The stakes for the midterms could hardly be higher. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. Historically, the president's party loses seats in midterm elections and that pattern was already in play before the Iran war began.

The seats most at risk are precisely those in districts where gas prices hit hardest: suburban commuter belts, rural farming communities dependent on diesel, and working-class industrial areas where transportation costs flow directly into everyday budgets. A sustained period of $6 per-gallon gasoline could dominate voters' economic concerns and be politically catastrophic for the party, overshadowing policy achievements.

Whether a peace deal is reached, oil prices retreat, and inflation cools quickly enough to improve voter sentiment may ultimately determine the balance of power in Congress.

For Republicans, the political stakes are clear. Their best-case scenario is a lasting peace agreement that restores oil flows, brings relief at the pump, and improves the economic outlook before Americans cast their votes. If that happens, the war may be remembered as a strategic success. If not, voters may focus less on foreign policy achievements and more on the cost of filling their tanks.

In November, Republicans will find out if the war was worth it, or will voters bring back the ultimate Apprentice catchphrase: “You’re fired”.

Footnotes:

¹THE WHITE HOUSE, 365 WINS IN 365 DAYS: President Trump’s Return Marks New Era of Success, Prosperity, as of January 20, 2026

²IEA, Oil Market Report - March 2026, as of March 12, 2026

³Politico, War-driven gas spike puts pressure on summer travelers — and Republicans, as of May 23, 2026

⁴House Democrats, Chairman Aguilar: Americans can't afford their doctor's visits or their groceries, or gas, but they’re watching the Trump administration send more tax dollars abroad, as of March 17, 2026